I thought I was working on some pretty outlandish theories…a la Graves’ involvement of Caligula…but I gotta tip my hat to Dando-Collins.

I will say that I found his book entertaining and useful (as a novelist, not a historian) and it does dramatize the story nicely. It’s a thrilling read. I only hope my own book will be as much fun.

But my book is admitted fiction. The idea that (spoiler alert) Agrippina would murder her own husband based on this absurd plan of Seneca’s buggers the imagination.

She’s a 32 year old woman who has born nine children and followed her husband through campaign after campaign. Everywhere she goes, she’s covered in glory along with her husband and children.

If she’s as ambitious as Dando-Collins (and, you know, Tiberius) make her out to be, her ambitions are best served by the ongoing health and success of her husband. Even if she’s unaccountably bored of being married to the second most powerful (and single most popular) man in the Roman Empire, she has ample motive to wait out the reign of Tiberius with her husband waiting in the wings.

There’s no indication that Germanicus would have refused to be emperor. What he refused to do was start a civil war and overthrow the duly elected emperor, which not only would have been treasonous, but also would have destabilized the freshly stabilized Rhine, since the troops for this adventure would likely have to come from there. No way Germanicus would subject the northern provinces to that kind of security risk. Not after Teutoburg.

Germanicus had no reason to have any sort of beef with Tiberius. And Tiberius seemed to be grooming him well enough to take over the empire. Putting him in charge of the Eastern Provinces all but made him Lieutenant Emperor. Why wouldn’t Germanicus follow the same path with Tiberius that Tiberius had with Augustus? Be the older man’s strong right arm? Rise to power in the natural course of time?

Had Germanicus succeeded Tiberius, there would be nothing to fear from Drusus or Gemellus. Germanicus could name his own heir at that time and that heir would be Nero. What was the Senate going to do? Demand that Germanicus name Gemellus as his heir? A boy younger than Caligula?

And Tiberius hated Agrippina. There’s no reason to believe her star would rise without her husband there.

And why would Tiberius name Nero to be his successor on the death of Germanicus? Nero would have been 15 years old. Being emperor wasn’t like being a Pharaoh. It wasn’t something a child could do. Tiberius would have made Drusus his heir. Not only was it politically correct, it was practically necessary.

Of course Drusus said he didn’t want to be emperor. So did Germanicus. Because no one says they want to be emperor. And no one says they want to be emperor especially while the current emperor is still alive. Tiberius even refused before the Senate begged him to accept. Pro forma, of course, but that’s the point: no one ever says “make me emperor.” Voicing the ambition to be emperor was grounds for arrest, as the unlucky Nero discovered.

But with Germanicus dead, of course Drusus would step up. His father would demand it even if he didn’t want it. And he was already working diligently in government, negotiating peace on the Rhine and in Pannonia and working with his father in the Senate.

So, sorry, there is simply no way…it’s simply insane…to suggest that Agrippina would kill her husband who happens to be heir to the throne in the hopes that the emperor, who hates her, will adopt her children, who are not of age.

It’s also ridiculous to believe that Agrippina would believe that the people would blame Tiberius for the death of Germanicus and rise up to overthrow him and that after that bloody mess the Senate would appoint her son to replace him.

Even if either of those things were remotely possible, it’s insane to suggest that Agrippina would bet her life on it. And trust Seneca, a 22 year old kid who she barely knew.

No, the most likely candidate is Sejanus. Tiberius and Livia would not risk poisoning Germanicus. If they wanted him dead, they would have let him stay in Germany and they would have worked up a way to have him betrayed like Varus (though probably not with such heavy losses.) A death on the battlefield in a dangerous war zone would arouse less suspicion. But ultimately, Germanicus wasn’t a problem for Tiberius and Livia. They just didn’t like him or his wife, but you don’t murder everyone you don’t like.

Most likely it was Sejanus. He’s the only one who truly needed Germanicus out of the way. Drusus lacked the ambition and had plenty of power of his own anyway. And his place was secured.

One element from Dando-Collins I do buy: belladonna was used precisely so people would know he was poisoned. It’s likely that Sejanus sussed out that Piso would make a great scapegoat and had Germanicus poisoned by one of his inside guys in the military. Clearly, Sejanus had enough influence to mount a conspiracy in the guard and the legions, so it’s not impossible that he’d have one of his guys slip Germanicus the poison during drills or on a march.

Joe